A Senate Majority, If You Can Keep It

The Democrats’ twin victories in the Georgia Senate runoffs gave them a tenuous majority. With the upper chamber balanced at 50-50, Democrats’ ability to exert control depends on their ability to hold all of these seats in 2022 (and the vice presidency, which is guaranteed through 2024).
Can they do it? History might suggest no. The phenomenon of midterm loss is well-established for the House of Representatives: The president’s party has lost ground in every midterm election dating back to the end of Reconstruction save for three: 1934, 1998 and 2002. All three of those elections took place…